The secretariat of state for trade commissioned a study to analyse in depth the potential impact of Brexit in the spanish economy. To that end, the perpetrators used a model of computable general equilibrium capable of capturing the direct and indirect impacts of Brexit on a wide number of productive sectors of goods and services.
At the high level of uncertainty about the agreement, were considered four different scenarios. In all of them, the Brexit would have negative consequences forGDPand employment in spain, as well as for trade and foreign direct investment that the spanish economy and receive. The output of the United Kingdom will be the emergence of obstacles to both commercial and flows of foreign direct investment of more or less intensity according to the scenario envisaged, and will have negative effects on key economic variables.
The fall ofGDPthe range the -0,64 per cent, in the most negative scenario without agreement, and the -0,32 per cent, in a soft Brexit. The study highlights that the impact of Brexit would mainly explained by the projected increase in non-tariff barriers and barriers to direct investment, while the impact of tariff barriers would be lower. It should be noted that the results to the study are consistent with the estimates for other prior studies. The contraction that the spanish economy would be similar to the rest of the european Union, but, much less than that would occur in the united kingdom, which would lose their preferential access to a huge market.
The study shows that the impact of Brexit on different sectors of activity would be heterogeneous and some specific sectors would suffer a shock. The analysis quantifies the impact on production, exports and imports of 22 sectors.
When interpreting the results, it is important to bear in mind that the figures of the study are a good approximation to the impact foreseeable, but they must be taken with caution, especially the more disaggregated level, for each model is based on assumptions that simplify significantly the economic reality.
Estimates of this study was conducted in february, before 2020 pending high economic impact of the results. Its COVID-19 continue, in general, remain valid, but would lose validity if the current crisis leads to significant and lasting changes in our economic structure and our trade and investment flows.
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